Who is going to win the SEC East? This is the million dollar question.

Most of the polls have the Florida Gators at the top of the East. It's a toss-up between Georgia and Tennessee for 2nd and the Gamecocks consistently land at #4. Next is Kentucky and then Vandy. This is the easy bet and it takes no courage to go with this ranking.

We're brave enough to break away with most of the odds makers on the SEC East based on what we’re seeing since last season.

The Inverted Strategic Path Model. We have a theory about the SEC East outcome for 2007. Basically, in a division like the SEC East where there is a lot of parity among six teams, the bottom team's increased success path dramatically alters the top team’s chances of going to Atlanta.

Bottom Line: If your team gets to three SEC losses, you significantly reduce your opportunities for an SEC championship. So if you lose two in the SEC East games and one out of three to a West team, it will be a long November.

Here’s how it plays out. Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have historically been represented in the Top tier. South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are represented in the bottom tier. We believe that South Carolina will win two out of three with the top tier and Kentucky will beat one or two of the top three. These wins will start a melt down of the top tier. Vandy with their nineteen returning starters could win one game against the top three teams, moving the balance of power.

The West Affects the East. The games against the West will also alter the outcome of the East. Tennessee plays Arkansas, Miss State, and Bama. Florida plays LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss. Georgia has to play Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss, all formidable games. In reality, any of the top four teams could win the East. Based on the observations of the six SEC East teams, here are our predictions for 2007.

SEC East Rankings:

1) South Carolina

2) Florida

3) Georgia

4) Tennessee

5) Kentucky

6) Vandy

South Carolina. We are big on leadership. Steve Spurrier was the only coach in the East to boldly say his team would compete for the SEC championship. We have always said that having a lion leading a team of sheep is stronger than a sheep leading a group of lions. You remove Spurrier from this equation and the Gamecocks are maybe fourth. With Spurrier, they will likely finish top 3 in 07. The defense is vastly improved and the offense got its rhythm at the end of the season. We like the momentum that this team finished with and we believe the other teams are more vulnerable this year with so many young players. If South Carolina wins in Athens, watch out.

Florida. It's a toss-up for #2 between Florida and Georgia and it will probably be determined in the game in Jacksonville. All the pollsters like Florida. We hear they have the most talent in the SEC East. Tebow is a horse but he is young. Young quarterbacks always take a little time to work out the kinks. Florida got too many breaks in 06 with a semi-pro football team. The 2007 squad is not as experienced and will not get the same breaks. Additionally, Florida has had a lot of off the field issues since their championship and this equates to negatives for a team during the season. If Urban Meyer finishes the season in the Top 10, he deserves another raise.

Georgia. Never has it been so quiet for Georgia fans. Coach Richt isn't saying anything about the upcoming year and is really keeping fans expectations at bay. We know Georgia is loaded with young talent. Matt Stafford and Joe Cox should have a better handle over the quarterback situation this year. Georgia's defense is young and we think the Bulldogs will have their hands full every week. With the strength in the offensive backfield, Georgia will keep it interesting. Was last year's losses a fluke? Maybe. But Georgia was not highly represented on the All-SEC team which means they will have to fight for every win, just like everybody else. Should Georgia finish #1, we wouldn’t be surprised.

Tennessee. Tennessee should be #1 with the talent they have in the SEC East this year. The Vols have Senior leadership, a favorable schedule and Florida and Georgia are re-loading.  

We were high on the Vols until we heard Coach Fulmer's media day interviews. Our biggest concern about Fulmer is he never really acknowledges losing which is what got him in trouble in 05. By Fulmer's words, he believes he was two plays from being the SEC East champs in 06.

In the interviews, Fulmer was glossing over the facts and moving to spin which is risky for any organization. We love optimistic coaches but when they move to everything is "blue sky" we consider it a red flag. It's hard for us to put Tennessee #4 with all the talent; but we believe Tennessee will have a tough year. We’ll keep watching the Vols but an early loss to Florida will start a slippery slope in Knoxville.

Kentucky. Kentucky may control the balance of power in the SEC East. The Wildcats are due to beat Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. Kentucky is talented enough to do it in 07. With Andre Woodson leading the SEC quarterbacks, the Cats are bringing back all the offensive playmakers. The defense was awful last year and a new coordinator may be able to fill the holes. We will be watching Kentucky closely, and we believe they will pull some upsets and do well against the West teams.

Vandy. Vandy has the toughest schedule in the entire free world. We like Chris Nickson at quarterback; and with ten starters back on offense and seven on defense, Vandy should make a good run. Vandy played Bama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Florida as well as anybody in 2006. We believe Vandy has the talent to pull some upsets and shift the balance of power in the SEC East.

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Jay Holgate is an analyst and sports writer for www.secsportsreport.com

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