Welcome to the SEC Coaches Stock Market Report, Week 7. We look at SEC coaches and the impact they have on their teams like a Wall Street analyst watches stocks. We are gauging multiple factors to evaluate their performance. We are not privy to their practices or insider information; therefore we base our opinions on what we see and read about each team. Our goal is to let you know who is up and who is down in the SEC.
This week, SEC winners outpaced losers 6-5. Our two new stocks, Auburn and Tennessee, continue to do well. Our favorite pick was LSU which now it seems more vulnerable.
Just so everybody understands the rules of the game; Our analysis is a big picture evaluation which includes a lot of factors. We are not evaluating how well a coach calls a game, unless he completely blows it with the potential of losing the confidence of his team. In our opinion, the SEC has twelve of the best coaches in the nation.
The confidence factor is our confidence in the program going forward; Five ***** being the highest rating. If you want to play at home, send us your rankings. Until then, enjoy. It is a volatile market. The stars indicate how we are feeling about a particular coach and this years team , but what really matters is the rank order of the coaches week to week.
1) Our SEC Coach of the week is Rich Brooks. The Kentucky Wildcats took out #1 LSU on the home field in Lexington. Quarterback Andre Woodson did what needed to be done to win the game. This week, Kentucky hosts a well-rested Florida Gator team who is trying to end a two-game losing streak. We believe this will be another shoot-out but Florida will be bringing their A game. It will be a Kentucky Miracle to win this game. Game time is 3:30 on CBS. Kentucky played great to win against LSU; so we will keep them at a 4**** confidence rating.
2) Auburn is back. Auburn travels to Arkansas and wins 9-7. For the second week in a row, Wes Byrum kicks a game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter. Auburn held Heisman candidate Darren McFadden to 43 yards, the first time all season he has been under 100 yards. We like Auburn right now. LSU is vulnerable coming off the loss to Kentucky. We believe Auburn will play LSU competitively and may pull an upset. Auburn will be playing at LSU at 8:00 pm on ESPN. We will keep Auburn at a 4**** confidence rating and will be watching Saturday's game as our SEC Game of the Week.
3) Tennessee continues to look good. The Vols are sitting in the #3 spot in the SEC East with their eye on beating Spurrier and Brooks for their end-of-the-season finale to finish at the top. Phillip Fulmer has moved his team into the #20 ranking in the AP Poll. Quarterback Erik Ainge has only been sacked one time this season which means kudos for the Vols offensive line. This week, Tennessee travels to Alabama for a Lincoln Financial game at 12:30 pm. We will keep Tennessee at a 3.5*** confidence rating. We like the Vols this weekend. If they beat Alabama, the Vols will move up on our rating.
4) Steve Spurrier went out of conference and enjoyed beating an ACC opponent. Since Spurrier recruited so many kids from the Tar Heel state, he needed to have a good showing to keep the funnel working. Freshman quarterback Chris Smelley must have an angel because his every potential intercepted pass gets dropped. This week the Gamecocks host a fiesty Vanderbilt team in Columbia. There is pay per view coverage for a 12:30 pm kick-off. We will keep USC at a solid 4**** confidence rating.
5) Nick Saban is learning to appreciate the wins in the toughest conference in football. For the third straight season, Alabama was forced to survive the game's final play to defeat Mississippi. Alabama held a 27-24 victory over Ole Miss. Alabama hosts Phillip Fulmer this week for a 12:30 pm game carried by Lincoln Financial. We will keep Alabama at a 4**** confidence rating and will watch this rivalry game unfold.
6) Mark Richt is suffering through another tough season. The Bulldogs Brandon Coutu kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired to help No. 24 Georgia overcome a 10-point halftime deficit and beat Vanderbilt 20-17 on Saturday night. Mark Richt needs a week off with his team to prepare for the Cocktail Party in two weeks in Jacksonville. We are going to keep Georgia at a 3.5*** confidence rating.
7) Urban Meyer had the week off to figure out what happened to the Gators. After losing their last two games, the Gators travel to Commonwealth Stadium in Kentucky to play one of the few teams in the SEC that has a home field advantage. This game should be a shoot-out. We believe the Gators will take revenge on the Wildcats for their bad experiences with the Tigers from Auburn and LSU. Game time is set for 3:30 pm on CBS. We will keep Florida at a 4.5**** confidence rating.
8) Vandy beats expectations but still loses. Vanderbilt had opportunities to beat Georgia but could not pull the trigger. Vandy did force Georgia to kick a last second field goal to win the game. For Vandy, it was a heck of a fight. This week, the Commodores travel to Columbia to play Spurrier in a game covered by pay per view. Kick-off is 12:30 pm and will be covered by pay per view. We will elevate Vandy to a 3.5*** confidence rating because they have the potential to knock off a Top 20 team.
9) Ole Miss continues to look better. Unfortunately for Ed Orgeron, the Rebels do not get the win. In another close game with Bama, Ole Miss goes down 27-24. Quarterback Seth Adams continues to impress us. This team is growing each week and we believe they will get an upset by the end of the season. This week, Ole Miss hosts Arkansas. Game time is 1:00 pm CT and there is no TV coverage. This could be the Rebels chance to pull the upset. We will keep Ole Miss at a 2.5** confidence rating until they win an SEC game.
10) Sylvester Croom managed to get MSU's offense to 338 total yards against Tennessee. Miss State played a good first half but lost to Tennessee 33-21. This week Miss State travels to West Virginia in a game covered by ESPN regional. Kick off is 2:30 pm CT. We will say a prayer for MSU and will keep them at a 3.5*** confidence rating.
11) Houston Nutt is suffering through the longest season of his entire life. Just when the Razorbacks put together a game-winning drive, Auburn puts together a game-winning kick. Auburn wins late in the game 9-7. Arkansas fans are having a hard time believing their conference champs from a year ago have not won an SEC game this year. This week, Arkansas travels to Ole Miss for a 1:00 pm CT kick-off. We will down grade Arkansas to a 3.5*** confidence rating even though they have lost to three good teams.
12) Les Miles moved from first to last in one week. We love Les Miles and it is so hard to put his team at the bottom. However, the Tigers were favored by nine points to a Kentucky team that got man handled by the Gamecocks. LSU is more talented but probably got caught up in the hype after beating Florida. Well, that party is over and now Auburn is coming to town. It is going to be a cat fight. This game will be our SEC Game of the Week. Kickoff is 8:00 pm CT and it will be covered by ESPN. We are down grading LSU to a 4.5 **** because we believe they are vulnerable and are moving into emotional SEC West games where anything can happen.
Jay Holgate is an analyst with SECSportsReport.com
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